Artificial Intelligence has revolutionized the digital world but few understand its limitations. In fact, an early ‘clear-glass ceiling’ has become a ‘black-glass ceiling,’ that is, it still doesn’t know what it doesn’t know, hence for example, AI threatens to over-ride real (human) intelligence with potentially catastrophic consequences. R&D suggests that elements of AI will implode within a decade. ARPI is thus researching Intelligence Augmentation (‘IA’) as the ‘intelligence equilibrium’ restorative counterfoil.
ARPI ‘s Perspective on the Global Vulnerability from Reliance on Artificial Intelligence (AI):
AI is not a ‘decision-maker’ – it is a sophisticated, programmed databank with inherent biases. It is useful for the gathering and provision of some information, but with significant limitations;
AI is already enabling manipulation of information to infiltrate human life at all levels;
World exposure to, and growing reliance on, the presently misunderstood AI is a global vulnerability – that is, a potential global, sovereign and strategic risk or worse, a wicked problem;
Therefore, ‘threats’ and ‘threat actors’ must be addressed and reduced to prevent the global vulnerability – potentiality - from translating into a global or sovereign ‘strategic risk’;
For example, urgent action is required to stop the potentiality of AI over-riding IA (real, human decision-making including values and wisdom) – that is, ensuring fail-safe military systems concerning the use of tactical nuclear, chemical or hypersonic weapons by nations;
AI is not omniscient, can never see the ‘totality of a situation’ nor incorporate human values;
IA Intelligence Augmentation is the necessary counterfoil to rebalance the ‘intelligence equation’;
In summary, AI must be urgently re-approached, re-thought and re-designed to recognize and accommodate its limiting ceiling and borders; and
Educational change is required to restore individual thinking, learning and creativity rather than reliance on programmed data, to enable global intellectual capital to develop as intended.
“Today, risk is based in vulnerability and concerned with consequences.”
In February 2022, ARPI published the Top 10 Global Vulnerabilities, drawing on information from the Global Risk Policy Network. Information technology was (and still is) clearly number one Global Vulnerability = “Failure to recognize that information technology is the greatest risk to mankind in the history of the world.” Vulnerability has a different meaning from risk and relates to potentiality or possibility of strategic risk. This is described in full in ARPI’s Strategic Risk Policy® Model (Risk 4.0).
The essence of Strategic Risk Policy® is the need for leadership paradigm change to adjust to today’s interconnected and interdependent world, a meta-grid of networks, where information resides. It is then possible to identify and protect against vulnerabilities before risks or crises arise, enabling informed and pre-emptive decision-making, for progress, security, resilience and sustainability for the future.
The Australian Risk Policy Institute (ARPI) introduced ‘ARPI Perspectives’ this year to illustrate Strategic Risk Policy® thinking on global and sovereign matters. The first concerned the situation in Ukraine.